Obama

I'm starting to think this guy might be the next president of these here United States.


Obama drew 75,000 people to the Willamette River (I used to live near there) in Portland, OR. It's the largest political rally so far in this election. His delegate edge over Hillary Clinton is now sufficient to feel the scales tipping toward his nomination on the donkey ticket.

Just look at all those people. John McCain could never draw a crowd like that, but then, McCain doesn't need to: he is an elephant. Liberals may thrive in clusters, which is why the Democrats do so well in urban settings, but conservatives are more spread out, giving Republicans the rural boost. The GOP can nickel and dime the electoral college, in places like Montana, Wyoming, and North Dakota, while Democrats nail a few big prizes like California, Illinois, and New York.

Midterms usually predict cultural moodswings, and the GOP got their asses handed to them last round, and have been losing contested seats since. I think McCain will be drowned by the millstone of the Bush legacy. Bush is the turd in the punchbowl. No other president has been so unpopular for so long, and his war in Iraq has lost the support of the people. Every election after a war begins is a referendum on the war.

Unless there is an October surprise, Obama's got this nailed. Let's not forget that he's raised the most money, which is the final indicator, the penultimate litmus test for an American presidential candidate, the proof that the powerful men who run this country have given you the nod. After all, even Warren Buffet and Zbigneiw Brzezinski openly support Obama.

The race goes not always to the swift, nor the battle always to the strong, but statistically, that's the smart way to place your bet. However, I'm not giving 10-to-1 odds anymore. I almost lost my shirt betting on the GOP in the 2006 midterms.